Federal Reserve
Prochaine decision: 31 Jul 2026
- Taux
- 5.25%
- Pricing marche
- 38 bps cuts / 12 mois
Inflation services persistante
Central bank intelligence
Politique monetaire
Suivi des decisions de taux, attentes de marche, surprises macro et implications sur devises, indices, obligations et actifs a risque.
Inflation US
3.1%-0.2
PMI Global
51.8+1.4
Fed Funds
5.25%pause
VIX
14.7-8.2%
Dollar Index
104.2+0.5%
Brent
$82.4+1.1%
Rates and risk assets
Courbe macro et actifs sensibles
Calendrier des banques centrales
Hawkish pause
European Central Bank
Prochaine decision: 06 Aug 2026
- Taux
- 3.75%
- Pricing marche
- 52 bps cuts / 12 mois
PMI faibles, salaires a surveiller
Bank of England
Prochaine decision: 13 Aug 2026
- Taux
- 4.75%
- Pricing marche
- 44 bps cuts / 12 mois
Inflation domestique collante
Bank of Japan
Prochaine decision: 30 Jul 2026
- Taux
- 0.50%
- Pricing marche
- 1 hike possible
Yen intervention risk
Scenario
Fed hawkish surprise
USD +, yields +, Nasdaq compression, gold pullback
Reduire beta growth, conserver hedges dollar.
Scenario
Disinflation soft landing
Equities quality +, credit stable, or range, VIX bas
Favoriser quality momentum et swing longs avec stops serres.
Scenario
Growth scare
Duration +, defensives +, cyclicals -, crypto beta -
Augmenter cash, or et duration courte avant confirmation.
Impacts probables par banque centrale
Federal Reserve
- USD soutenu
- Nasdaq sensible aux taux reels
- Or dependant du DXY
European Central Bank
- EUR sous pression
- Duration Europe favorisee
- CAC range
Bank of England
- GBP volatil
- FTSE value resilient
- Gilt curve instable
Bank of Japan
- JPY asymetrique
- Carry trades vulnerables
- Global risk-off tail